The principle of space-for-time substitution in ecology and the prediction of Picea spp. biomass with climate change
Abstract
Today, human society is faced with problems of a global scale, as a result of which the priorities of environmental research are shifting to the macro-scale level, and ecology is entering the era of “big data”. The authors have created a database of 1550 model Picea spp. trees with measured indicators of tree height, crown width and aboveground biomass growing in the territory of Eurasia. Regression models for aboveground biomass components are calculated, including crown width, tree height, and two climate indicators as independent variables. Based on the theory of spacefor-time substitution, the obtained patterns of changes in aboveground biomass in the territorial climatic gradients of Eurasia are used to predict changes in biomass due to climate shifts. In accordance with the law of the limiting factor by Liebig, it is established that in sufficiently moisture-rich climatic zones, an increase in temperature by 1°C with a constant amount of precipitation causes an increase in biomass, and in water-deficient zones – its decrease; in warm climatic zones, a decrease in precipitation by 100 mm at a constant average January temperature causes a decrease in biomass, and in cold climatic zones – its increase.
Keywords
hydrothermal gradients,
biomass components,
tree lidar sensing,
allometric models,
mean January temperature,
annual precipitation
Supporting agencies: The work was carried out under the State Contract FEUZ-2021-0014.
About the Authors
V. A. Usoltsev
Ural State Forest Engineering University;
Botanical Garden of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
37, Siberian tract, Yekaterinburg, 620100;
202a, 8 Marta Str., Yekaterinburg, 620144
I. S. Tsepordey
Botanical Garden of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
202a, 8 Marta Str., Yekaterinburg, 620144
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Review
For citations:
Usoltsev V.A., Tsepordey I.S. The principle of space-for-time substitution in ecology and the prediction of Picea spp. biomass with climate change. Conifers of the boreal area. 2023;41(7):603-608.
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